Greek Produtcs Trade

Greek Exports : Current Trends and Future Prospects

4. Competitiveness
Discussions about competitiveness have attached increasing attention over recent years in Greece, fuelled in part by the ambiguity of the term competitveness`itself

Which lends itself to various coexisting interpretations as well as ways of measuring and comparing it across sectors and geographical regions.

It goes without saying that competitiveness is a multi-faceted concept affected by a wide range of factors.such as the macroeconomic and institutional environment,product and process innovation,the size and composition of investments,the quality of human resources (itself conditioned by education,social capital etc.) and infrastructure,developments in factor costs (influenced by the economy’s structural features,both in labour and capital markets) and factor producytivity.

Acknowledging the multi-faceted nature of competitiveness, a series of national and international agencies have in recent years started to offer comparative data based on a multitude of different criteria.

The annual publications of the Global Competitiveness Report compiled by the World Economic Forum,as well as the World Competitiveness Yearbook published by the IMD,receive a lof publicity in recent years.

The first report ranks Greece in 47th place (among 117 countries) for 2005-6 in terms of the Global Competitiveness Index,in 46th place in terms of the Growth Competitiveness Index and in 40th place in terms of the Business Competitiveness Index.

For its part,the World Competitiveness Yearbook for 2006 places Greece in 42nd place (out of total of 61 countries and regional economies),up 8 positions from 2005.An equally dismal picture emerges from such publications as the annual `transparency`report released by Transparency International,which puts Greece at the bottom of EU rankings,as well as by most appraisals of Greece’s progress toward the 17 Lisbon agenda targets,whose increasingly unrealistic goal is to make the EU the most competitive economy in the world by 2010.

A similar methodology,although not based on the use of questionnaires filled out by top business executives in each country,was applied by the National Competitiveness and Development Council (NCDC) in preparing the Annual Competitiveness Report 2005,in which Greece was compared on the basis of several dozens of indicators,covering economic environment,social cohesion,environmental protection,productivity and overall competitiveness improvements.

Comparisons were made to nine other countries,as well as to the EU-15 average.

According to the competitiveness definition adopted by the NCDC,competitiveness is `the ability to maintain and improve living standards and real cohesion,to protect and improve environmental conditions and to continuously raise productivity – under conditions of globalization`

Despite the usefulness of the information contained in these multi-dimensional surveys,the methodology applied by them is subject to a series of biases that concern the choice of sample countries,the reliability and comparability of data answers,where interviewee’s perceptions of the ideal standard against which real practice is appraised is expected to vary significantly across countries),the weighing of individual components etc.

It comes as no surprise therefore,that the WEF and IMD methodologies have received wide-spread criticism over the past years.

Cost and Price Competitiveness

If we are thus willing to sacrifice the data wealth offered by multivariate approaches,we can examine competitiveness through developments in nominal and real effective exchange rates.

A country’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) aims to track changes in the value of that country’s currency relative to the currencies of its principal trading partners and is calculated as the weighted average of the bilateral exchange rates with those currencies.

But competitiveness also depends on costs and price trends,so the real effective exchange rate (REER) aims to asses a country’s price or cost competitiveness relative to its principal competitors in international markets.

I t corresponds to the NEER,deflated by some price /cost deflator.

This is the broad outline of the European Commission methodology in its quarterly Price and Cost Competitiveness series.

Whereas Greek nominal effective exchange rate variations were reviewed in section 2,the following paragraphs will focus on cost and price competitiveness indices.

After all,Greek competitiveness vai-a-vis euro-zone members,which absorb the majority of the country’s exports,is no longer subject to exchange rate fluctuations,and Greece has relinquished autonomous monetary policy authority to the European Central Bank.

Diagram 4.1 uses data on four different price and cost indicators to monitor the 2005 annual change in each country’s relative price and competitiveness vs the average of euro-zone countries.

Unit labour costs for the whole economy (ULCE) are complemented by the GDP deflator (PGDP),the deflator of exports and goods services (PX) and the harmonized index of consumer prices deflator (HIPC).

Whereas countries such as Finland,Germany and France made substantial improvements in both their price and cost competitiveness in 2005,Greece continued the erosion of its competitive position,by recording increases in relative costs and prices.

Several other euro-zone members such as Portugal,Austria and the Netherlands displayed ambiguous movements in their cost and price indices.

Contrary to 2004 however,when the overheated Greek economy registered the highest rate of unit labour cost increases (6.0%) in the Euro-zone,last year saw the largest costs hikes taking place in Ireland,and the largest price rise happening in Spain.

In Greece,this year’s annual report by the Governor of the Bank of Greece places the unit labour cost increase for 2005 at 2.2%.down from 4.4% in 2004,and the moderation in public sector wage increases as the primary driving force behind this development.

Source: European Comission (2006), Price and Cost Competitivness 2005, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, ECFIN/C3, 4th quarter, p.7

Diagrams 4.2 and 4.3 plot the evolution of Greek real effective exchange rates on the basis of unit labour costs in the whole economy and export price deflators (aimed at capturing cost and price competitiveness respectively).

Data are recorded annually and converted inti indices,with 2000 serving as the base year.

Relative competitiveness is measured against (a) the 12 euro-zone member states,(b) the EU member-states and (c) a group of 34 industrialised countries (IC34).

The data reflect the protracted loss of competitiveness up till 1997 *(resulting from the strong drachma policy),which was reversed after the subsequent drachma devaluation and the decline in the euro after 1999.

The favourable developments in the period 1997-2001 testify to these influences,although this trend seems to have been reversed in recent years.

When expressed in a common currency relative unit labour costs in Greece have deteriorated since 1994: by 23.1% vis-à-vis the 12 euro-zone members,by 16.5% against the EU-25 and by 17.7% against the IC34 group.

When real effective exchange rates are derived on the basis of export price deflators,the overall trends remain the same,although the loss in competitiveness is somewhat moderated:16.6% against the euro-zone,15.2% against the Eu-25 and 16.9% against the IC34 group.

2000=100
Source: European Comission (2006), Price and Cost Competitivness 2005, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, ECFIN/C3, 4th quarter, p.2-14

The above information only adds to the overall impression concerning Greece’s competitiveness deficit,more so if one takes into consideration the importance of entrepreneurship,innovation and technological progress (the production of new and qualitatively superior products) in forging a competitive export sector.

In this context,the reduction of relative unit unit labour costs in manufacturing and elsewhere may be less important than improving product quality and design,or promoting investment.

What is more,the essential desideratum may be the reduction of technological and total (not unit labour) costs.

This report cannot offer but a brief overview of the data on Greek competitiveness.

Given the significance of Greek exports,both in stimulating domestic production and in financing the country’s imports,the observed interest in improving the competitive edge of Greek products overseas is entirely justified.

The real issue is for such interest by private and public sector agencies to be translated into a substantive export promotion strategy.


The maintenance of overall macro-economic stability and wage moderation,increases in labour productivity,improvements in human and physical capital infrastructure,deregulation in domestic markets (at least inasmuch as burdensome bureaucratic procedures imposed by public administration are concerned),entrepreneurship encouragement,investment stimuli and direct export promotion are all policy choices capable of directly or indirectly improving the country’y export position.

The genuine challenge lies in putting such a strategy to practice in the immediate future.

Source: Athens Chamber of Commerce & Industry




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